NFL Football - Week 4

Since I'm starting this mid-season, allow me to catch everyone up on the last three weeks:

I'm in one Fantasy league that counts. After three weeks, I'm 2-1. My roster is as follows:

QB - Cutler
WR - Colston, Andre Johnson, Roy Williams, Eddie Royal, Brandon Lloyd, Ike Hilliard
RB - Westbrook, Selvin Young, Lendale White, Chris Perry, Pierre Thomas
TE - Fasano, Scaife
K - Casay
DEF - Tampa Bay

Once a month, I place a series of parlay bets. Three-way bets I always win. 11 or 12 way bets I tend to lose one game. Best I've done was 10-0-2. Worst I've done was 10-2-0.

Thoughts for this week:

I don't like to focus on the must starts - LT, Marion Barber, Reggie Bush, Adrian Peterson, Cutler, Brees, Owens, etc - unless I think you shouldn't start them. Below are the RB's I think are surprises:

RB I like this week:
Johnathan Stewart - Atlanta is in for a long day
Chris Perry - Cincy will put up some points against CLE and Perry will be the major beneficiary
Jamal Lewis - I think this will be a high scoring game
Selvin Young - Pittman usually gets the goal-line carries, but I think Selvin gets them this week
Lendale White - I think TEN defense will setup easy scores

RB I don't like:
Adrian Peterson - TEN defense is too tough
Michael Turner - something tells me they'll be throwing a lot as they play from behind

QB I like this week:
Matt Ryan - ATL will be playing from behind, which means a lot of passing
JT O'Sullivan - NO can't stop anyone

QB I don't like:
McNabb - Chicago will give him fits
Griese - he will return to his normal inadequacies

WR I like this week:
Roddy White - Ryan's only target
Eddie Royal - There will be enough DEN scoring that everyone will get a slice
Holt - Green will find him more often than Bulger did

WR I don't like:
Chad Johnson - his career is over
Terrell Owens - I have a feeling WAS will own him this week
Greg Jennings - I think this is the player TB takes out of the game

DEF I like this week:
Arizona - I think Favre is looking at 3 INT this game, and one TINT (TD-INT)

DEF I don't like:
Tampa Bay scares me this week. Green Bay gives them fits.

Winning Teams with Odds at time of writing:

Buffalo -8
at Carolina -7
Cleveland +3
Washington +11
Denver -9.5
at Jacksonville -7
at New Orleans +5
Arizona - 1.5
Philadelphia -3
San Diego -7.5
Green Bay -1
Tennessee -3
Pittsburgh -5.5